Global Skin Cancer Burden Projected to Rise Through 2050: Study

Key Takeaways

• Global skin cancer burden increased substantially from 1990 to 2023, particularly in low- and middle-Sociodemographic Index (SDI) regions.
• Melanoma disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) declined in several high-SDI regions, while squamous cell carcinoma and basal cell carcinoma burdens continued to rise.
• Bayesian projections suggest all 3 major skin cancers will continue increasing globally through 2050, with the steepest growth expected in low- and middle-SDI settings.

A new research letter published online in JAMA Dermatology highlights widening global disparities in skin cancer burden and projects continued increases in melanoma, cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (cSCC), and basal cell carcinoma (BCC) through 2050.

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2023 database, the researchers analyzed prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with the 3 malignancies from 1990 through 2023. The analysis also examined trends by sex, age, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI), with future projections generated using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model.

In 2023, melanoma burden was highest in Oceania, while cSCC prevalence peaked in high-income Western countries, particularly the United States. BCC burden was concentrated in Oceania, North America, and Northern Europe. From 1990 to 2023, low- and middle-SDI regions experienced consistent increases across all 3 cancers, including melanoma increases of 258.8% in East Asia and 274.6% in Andean Latin America.

Investigators also identified divergent trends in high-income regions. In North America, melanoma incidence declined by 10.5%, while cSCC and BCC incidence increased by 154.1% and 34.6%, respectively. Male prevalence rates exceeded female rates across all skin cancer types. Projected DALYs are expected to rise sharply by 2050, with melanoma exceeding 3.3 million DALYs globally, cSCC reaching 4.0 million DALYs, and BCC approaching 5.0 million DALYs.

“Low- and middle-SDI settings demonstrated increasing trends across all 3 cancers, while high-SDI settings showed heterogeneous patterns with melanoma burden stabilizing in some regions and continued challenges in basal cell carcinoma management,” the authors wrote.

Source

Zhou Y, Zhong W, Liu X, et al. Global skin cancer burden from 1990 to 2023 and projection to 2050. JAMA Dermatol. Published online May 13, 2026. doi:10.1001/jamadermatol.2026.0964