Analysis Forecasts 140% Rise in Basal Cell Carcinoma by 2050
Key Takeaways
Global skin cancer burden among older adults has risen steadily since 1990
The incidence of basal cell carcinoma (BCC) is projected to increase over 140% by 2050
Disease burden was reported highest among men and residents of high-sociodemographic index (SDI) countries.
The global burden of skin cancer among adults aged 65 and older has increased steadily over the past three decades and is expected to continue rising through 2050, according to a new analysis of Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study data.
Researchers for the international observational study assessed incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) associated with skin cancers in individuals aged 65 years or older between 1990 through 2021, with projections out to 2050. Study data were taken from 204 countries. In 2021, researchers estimated 2.8 million cases of basal cell carcinoma (BCC), 1.46 million cases of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), and almost 154,000 melanoma cases among older adults. BCC had the highest incidence rate at 371.97 per 100,000 population, while SCC had the highest mortality (6.16 per 100,000) and DALYs (95.50 per 100,000) burdens.
The data also showed men had significantly higher burden metrics across all cancer types compared to women. The burden also skewed toward high sociodemographic index (SDI) countries, where elevated rates are observed due to access to care, increased UV exposure, and surveillance. Further frontier and inequality analyses suggested high-SDI countries are both disproportionately affected and also offer the greatest treatment potential due to healthcare policy and resource allocation, according to the researchers.
The authors reported that all major skin cancer metrics showed upward trends between 1990 to 2021. The main driver behind the increase was population growth, particularly in low- and middle-SDI countries. The steepest increase in melanoma rates was reported in the 85-to-94-year age group. They projected an increase of 140% in newly diagnosed BCC cases and a 43.75% increase in BCC-related DALYs by 2050. Melanoma metrics, by contrast, are expected to decline, they reported.
"The findings of this study suggest that the global disease burden of skin cancer in adults 65 years or older is on the rise, particularly among male individuals and in countries with a high SDI level," the authors concluded. "Our results underscore the urgency to enact prevention and treatment strategies tailored to high-risk older populations."
Source: Wang R, et al. JAMA Dermatology. 2025. doi:10.1001/jamadermatol.2025.1276